2030年将有多热?

<正>一直以来,我们对未来全球环境,特别是气候的所知都来自气候建模,而这部分工作则由IPCC(联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会)和其他气候学家完成,最有代表意义的就是IPCC已发表的成千上万卷以"决策者摘要"为标题的预测报告。这些详尽的调查构成了决策者的决     

城市雨洪资源利用经济价值评价研究

对城市雨洪的合理利用,有助于城市防止内涝、减少灾害、改善水环境,同时能够解决城市水资源短缺,有助于实现水资源可持续利用。文章通过对西安市雨洪资源量的分析,建立了雨洪资源利用的经济效益评价指标,同时,通过分析雨洪资源的利用对国民经济的促进作用,构建了雨洪资源利用的经济价值评价模型,确定了1998～2007年西安市雨洪资源利用对国民经济的贡献量,为下一步建立系统动力学模型分析资源与经济的相互影响奠定了基础。同时,利用该模型测算出2007年西安市雨水利用量约为234万m3,2006年雨洪资源的合理利用推动GDP增长104607.9万元,2007年雨洪资源的合理利用推动GDP增长125787.2万元,但同时尚有76556.61万m3的雨洪资源未得到合理利用。     

MICP技术加固岩石节理的力学机理试验研究∗

微生物诱导碳酸盐沉淀(MICP)是近年国内外兴起的一种微生物岩土技术,即利用微生物新陈代谢的矿化作用诱导产生碳酸盐沉淀,在土体抗液化、堤坝加固等领域得到广泛实验和应用,相较传统边坡加固手段,其绿色环保的特点更符合可持续发展理念。为探究MICP技术在完全分离的岩石节理试件中的胶结效果,通过一种可采用流体分阶段胶结岩石节理面的实验装置,实现MICP胶结液对岩石节理试件的胶结,在不同法向应力下探究其抗剪强度。结果表明:(1)MICP技术对岩石节理具有一定胶结作用;(2)随剪切位移的增加,MICP胶结实验组与无充填对照组的剪切强度维持一致,即二者抗剪残余应力基本相等;(3)胶结养护7 d的抗剪强度可达无充填对照组的85%。     

Characterization of dissolved organic carbon and Humic substances in the well water of the Blackfoot disease area in Taiwan

Since the early 1960s, many investigators have reported that blackfoot disease, a peripheral vascular disease, observed in southwestern Taiwan is due to drinking the higher arsenic concentration in well water. However, recent studies indicated that the relationship with blackfoot disease is not only with arsenic but also humic substances. This paper presents some results concerning the characterization (such as fluorescence, elemental composition, molecular weight and carbon distribution) of humic substances isolated from the Fuhsing well water of the blackfoot disease area. For comparison, the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and humic substances in the normal well water from Chiuying and the Nanwan coastal water were also analyzed. In general, in the well water of the blackfoot disease area, extremely high concentrations of DOC (18.5mg/L) and fulvic acid (7.54mg/L) with high fluorescence intensity (59.1, equivalent to 0.0282uM quinine sulfate solution) and high percentages (over 50%) of low molecular weights of less than 1,000 were obtained compared with those of normal waters. C‐13 Nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy showed a high content (37.2%) of aromatic carbon. These higher concentrations of DOC and fulvic acid with the higher content of aromatic carbon in well water might be one of the key factors causing the blackfoot disease in Taiwan.     

衰变子体对241Am2Zr2O7固化体晶胞体积影响的模拟

为探索241 Am核素衰变子体对241Am2Zr2O7烧绿石固化体晶胞体积的影响,根据递次衰变理论计算了241Am衰变子体种类及其含量随时间的变化值,并以Nd2Zr2O7作为Am2Zr2O7的模拟物,La作为241Am衰变子体Np的模拟元素,采用Sol-喷雾热解法合成了(Nd1-xLax)2Zr2O7(0.1≤x≤0.9)系列模拟固化体.利用XRD和SEM研究了该固化体晶胞参数(α、V)随x的变化关系以及其烧结体的微观结构.结果表明,经103 a后,241 Am核素的相对摩尔分数仅为最初的10-5at％,其子体237Np的摩尔分数将达到70at％以上,并在4.3×103a后达到峰值(约99at％).相较其他常规方法,Sol-喷雾热解法能在更低温度、更温和的条件下获得纯相的(Nd1-xLax)2Zr2O7烧绿石样品,且能保证其烧结体晶粒细小(约10 μm),结构致密,残余气孔率可减少到5％.(Nd1-xLax)2Zr2O7模拟固化体的晶胞参数(α、V)均随x的增加而逐渐增大,在相同x条件下,其晶格常数理论值较试验值大0.2％,其晶胞体积在x为0.9时将膨胀约4％.(Nd1-xLax)2Zr2O7模拟固化体晶胞参数变化趋势与(Am1-xNpx)2Zr2O7固化体的理论值基本一致.     

典型碳酸盐岩区耕地土壤剖面重金属形态迁移转化特征及生态风险评价

碳酸盐岩土壤母质区是我国耕地土壤重金属高含量的主要分布区,且耕地重金属迁移转化受到自然过程与人为活动的交互影响.以广西碳酸盐岩母质水田9条土壤剖面为研究对象,在分析测试土壤Cd、As、Zn、Cr、Cu、Hg、Ni和Pb含量、pH、Corg含量等土壤性质指标以及Cd、As、Zn和Cr赋存形态基础上,重点探讨了研究区耕地土壤重金属形态垂向分布特征、重金属生态风险以及对比在自然成土过程中和人为活动干扰下重金属迁移转化的影响因素.结果表明,研究区土壤剖面中Cd、As、Zn和Cr存在样本超农用地（水田）污染风险筛选值,Cd和As部分超管制值.土壤剖面Cd各形态均有一定比例分布,且随剖面深度由浅至深,Cd生态风险较高的水溶态、离子交换态比例呈显著下降趋势;土壤剖面As、Zn和Cr各深度段均以残渣态为主,随深度加深,水溶态和离子交换态比例变化不大.风险评价编码法（RAC）和次生相与原生相分布比值法（RSP）评价结果显示,研究区土壤Cd污染风险相对较高,总体上As、Zn和Cr处于无污染或无风险状态.研究区自然发育的土壤,黏土矿物含量和土壤发育程度对Cd迁移活动性的影响较为显著,而受人为活动影响的耕作层中,土壤pH与有机质含量则成为其迁移活动性的主控因素;土壤As的迁移能力主要与土壤有机质、Fe₂O₃含量以及土壤发育程度有关,但在耕作层中,有机质对其控制作用明显增强;土壤中Zn、Cr迁移能力的主控因素均为pH,而在人类活动干扰下,pH对其影响更为强烈.     

基于复合LSTM模型的PM2.5浓度预测

在对淄博市19个空气质量监测站点监测数据进行分析后,提出了一种基于机器学习的复合模型——灰色关联度分析(GRA)-改进的完备总体经验模态分解(ICEEMD)-长短期记忆网络(LSTM)模型。通过分析淄博市2019年大气污染物和气象数据,选用LSTM模型预测PM_2.5浓度。由于传统单一模块机器学习模型具有训练时间较长和预测精度较低的问题,提出了复合LSTM模型。该模型由3部分组成：GRA,用于PM_2.5浓度影响因素变量筛选;ICEEMD,用于PM_2.5分解、分量筛选和原始大气污染物及气象数据处理;LSTM,用于PM_2.5浓度预测。预测结果表明：淄博市中部丘陵地带PM_2.5浓度高于南部山区和北部平原,东部高于西部;淄博市逐月PM_2.5浓度呈“U”形分布,1月最高,8月最低;淄博市PM_2.5浓度受PM₁₀和CO影响较大,受湿度和温度影响较小。对比单一LSTM模型和GRA-LSTM模型,GRA-ICEEMD-LSTM模型...     

Modeling of organic pollutant destruction in a stirred-tank reactor by ozonation

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Prenatal ultrasonographic diagnosis of congenital megalourethra

Congenital megalourethra is a rare genital anomaly characterized by dilatation of the penile urethra without evidence of distal obstruction. Reports of the prenatal diagnosis of this condition in the literature are limited. We present a case of congenital megalourethra with obstructive uropathy from the posterior urethra diagnosed prenatally at 18 weeks of gestation. ‘Prune-belly’-like features, colonic malrotation, and imperforate anus were also found on autopsy.     

Analysis of herbicide Krovar I by liquid chromatography with atmospheric pressure chemical ionization mass spectrometry

A simple, very efficient method is presented for routine analysis of herbicide Krovar I (active components bromacil and diuron) in water and soil samples. Water samples were extracted by liquid-liquid extraction with dichloromethane (DCM) as extraction solvent. For soil samples two different extraction techniques were compared: microwave-assisted solvent extraction and a shaking technique using a platform shaker. Extracts were analyzed by high performance liquid chromatography using a water:methanol gradient. Liquid chromatography was coupled with atmospheric pressure chemical ionization mass spectrometry (LC-APCI-MS) for quantification of bromacil and diuron. Optimization of the APCI-MS was done by using standards in the flow injection analysis mode (FIA). Method detection limit for liquid samples for bromacil is 0.04 microg L(-1) and for diuron 0.03 microg L(-1). Method detection limit for soil samples is 0.01 microg g(-1) dry weight for both compounds. Results of analysis of field samples of water and soil are also presented.